What is a room like yours losing?
Four numbers you already know. The answer is a range, because an honest estimate is.
Likely leaking, every month
$1,600–$4,800
about $38,500 a year
Conservative by construction — each leg is the low end of its published range.
This is not
your number.
It is an industry estimate, built from published ranges and deliberately set at the conservative end of each one. It cannot know your room. Your number comes from your own register, your own clock-ins and your own counts — and it names the shift it happened on. That takes a connection, not a slider.
How the estimate is built
Three legs, and where each range comes from.
Voids & discounts
0.5–1.5% of sales
POS voids and comps beyond normal. The National Restaurant Association puts total restaurant fraud near 4% of sales; we count only a conservative slice (0.5–1.5%).
Inventory & food-cost variance
1.0–3.0% of sales
Theoretical-vs-actual usage — shrink, waste, over-portioning. Waste alone runs ~10–15% of a ~32% food spend (~3–5% of sales); we count only the recoverable 1–3%.
- NRA Restaurant Operations Data Abstract (2024) — Food and beverage cost runs about 32% of sales. via BentoBox
- Orbisk — Roughly 10–15% of food spend is lost to waste in professional kitchens. via Orbisk
- Binwise / William Vaughan Co. — Actual-versus-theoretical inventory variance commonly runs about 20% of the theoretical usage gap. via Agilence
Labor drift
0.5–1.5% of sales
Early clock-ins, buddy punching, overtime creep. The American Payroll Association puts time theft at 2.2–5% of payroll; at ~30% labor that's ~0.7–1.5% of sales, scaled by your headcount.
- American Payroll Association — Time theft costs up to about 5% of gross payroll; buddy punching alone about 2.2%. via Netchex
- NRA operations data — Restaurant labor runs about 30% of sales — used to convert a share-of-payroll figure into a share-of-sales one. via industry prime-cost split
Then adjusted for the room
A bar carries more exposure than a quick-service counter — overpour, higher void discretion and more cash. Sculpture Hospitality puts shrinkage as high as 20% of profit against net margins of 3–5%, which is why a few points of leak is the whole question.
The slider is a guess. Your register is not.
Connect it and the last 60 days are read on the way in, priced and located to a shift. One session, start to number.
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