Runs every night, on every location. The night's findings, priced by morning.

What is a room like yours losing?

Four numbers you already know. The answer is a range, because an honest estimate is.

Service type

Likely leaking, every month

$1,600–$4,800

about $38,500 a year

Voids & discounts$400–$1,200
Inventory & food-cost variance$800–$2,400
Labor drift$400–$1,200

Conservative by construction — each leg is the low end of its published range.

This is not
your number.

It is an industry estimate, built from published ranges and deliberately set at the conservative end of each one. It cannot know your room. Your number comes from your own register, your own clock-ins and your own counts — and it names the shift it happened on. That takes a connection, not a slider.

How the estimate is built

Three legs, and where each range comes from.

Voids & discounts

0.5–1.5% of sales

POS voids and comps beyond normal. The National Restaurant Association puts total restaurant fraud near 4% of sales; we count only a conservative slice (0.5–1.5%).

  • National Restaurant Association — Restaurant loss to fraud averages around 4% of sales. via Mirus
  • Lavu — A healthy void rate sits under 1–2% of sales; above that reads as abuse or error. via Lavu

Inventory & food-cost variance

1.0–3.0% of sales

Theoretical-vs-actual usage — shrink, waste, over-portioning. Waste alone runs ~10–15% of a ~32% food spend (~3–5% of sales); we count only the recoverable 1–3%.

  • NRA Restaurant Operations Data Abstract (2024) — Food and beverage cost runs about 32% of sales. via BentoBox
  • Orbisk — Roughly 10–15% of food spend is lost to waste in professional kitchens. via Orbisk
  • Binwise / William Vaughan Co. — Actual-versus-theoretical inventory variance commonly runs about 20% of the theoretical usage gap. via Agilence

Labor drift

0.5–1.5% of sales

Early clock-ins, buddy punching, overtime creep. The American Payroll Association puts time theft at 2.2–5% of payroll; at ~30% labor that's ~0.7–1.5% of sales, scaled by your headcount.

  • American Payroll Association — Time theft costs up to about 5% of gross payroll; buddy punching alone about 2.2%. via Netchex
  • NRA operations data — Restaurant labor runs about 30% of sales — used to convert a share-of-payroll figure into a share-of-sales one. via industry prime-cost split

Then adjusted for the room

Quick-service×0.7
Fast-casual×0.85
Full-service×1
Bar / Lounge×1.35

A bar carries more exposure than a quick-service counter — overpour, higher void discretion and more cash. Sculpture Hospitality puts shrinkage as high as 20% of profit against net margins of 3–5%, which is why a few points of leak is the whole question.

A dining room after close, seen through the window

The slider is a guess. Your register is not.

Connect it and the last 60 days are read on the way in, priced and located to a shift. One session, start to number.

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